The big test for the new Ubuntu is the next LTS release. If the next LTS release can win over the current LTS users, Ubuntu will remain on top. However, Canonical has to pull off quite a miracle given that LTS users are more resistant to change than people using the other Ubuntu releases. Thus, I think LTS users are even less likely to warm up to the new Ubuntu. The full impact of Unity won't be known until support for the current LTS release ends in 2013. At that point, LTS users will have to switch to the new Ubuntu or switch to something else. I think they will overwhelmingly pick the latter option, and Linux Mint usage will really jump. Linux Mint is most like the old Ubuntu - user-friendly and also part of the Debian side of the distroverse. One indicator to look at is how many other distros provide Unity. If Unity is successful, you'll see other distros offering it. So far, all other distros have been distancing themselves from Unity. Another indicator is to look at is the number of Ubuntu derivatives. If you see Ubuntu derivatives folding or switching to a different base, then you'll know that the new Ubuntu is a flop. I haven't tried Unity, because I couldn't get it working in VirtualBox or on my laptop, so I've only seen the GNOME backup system and Xfce (in Xubuntu). The bloatware of Ubuntu is enough to scare me off. Linux Mint Debian Edition with GNOME feels faster with only 512 MB of RAM than X/Ubuntu feels with 2 GB of RAM. Ubuntu has finally caught up with Windows when it comes to hardware requirements. If you like the old Ubuntu and hate the new Ubuntu, Linux Mint is the distro for you. I consider Mint to the THE premier distro for first-time Linux users. It includes many essential drivers and codecs, it's user-friendly, and it has a HUGE repository. I've been using the new Linux Mint Debian Edition, and it has won me over so thoroughly that I'm using it as the basis for future editions of Swift Linux. LMDE offers the user-friendly look and feel of the traditional Ubuntu-based editions without the Ubuntu overhead. I think we're seeing a changing of the guard - the Ubuntu Era is giving way to the Mint Era. The controversy over Ubuntu is the answer to complaints that there are too many distros. If Ubuntu were the only distro, Linux would be in trouble. Thanks to the diversity of the distroverse, Ubuntu users have other options, like Mint, Fedora, PCLinuxOS, and others. On Wed, 9 Nov 2011 12:10:03 -0600 "Bob De Mars" <globerunners.it.dept at gmail.com> wrote: > Can the Linux Jedi hold things together? > > > > http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/11/08/ubuntu_on_trial/ > -- Jason Hsu <jhsu802701 at jasonhsu.com>